India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
Goyal also said that current account deficit is likely to be 2.5 per cent of GDP this year.
Singaporean brokerage DBS said in a report that it expects exports to pick up once the GST-driven distortions subsided, but it warned that the traditional product mix will hinder its ability to participate in the ongoing trade upturn.
Indian rupee slipping below the record 88 level against the US dollar will enhance price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets and help exporters diversify beyond the US market, say exporters. However, import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, they stated.
In his speech, PM emphasised on the need to bring India's current account deficit under control and reduce demand for gold and petroleum products.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Pakistan on Tuesday increased its defence budget by 20 per cent, allocating PRs. 2,550 billion ($9 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-26, amid tensions with India.
'We have to retain some fiscal headroom without compromising on the promised fiscal consolidation roadmap.'
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's Current Account Deficit (CAD), rose 6.4 per cent to $12.9 billion during April-July this fiscal due to healthy demand, according to government data. The imports stood at $12 billion during the same period a year ago. In July 2022, however, imports of the precious metal fell sharply by 43.6 per cent to $2.4 billion, as per the latest data released by the commerce ministry.
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), rose by 33.34 per cent to $46.14 billion during the 2021-22 fiscal on account of higher demand, according to official data. Gold imports were worth $34.62 billion in 2020-21. The surge in gold imports during the last financial year contributed to the widening of the trade deficit to $192.41 billion, against $102.62 billion in 2020-21.
Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) increased to a 4-year high of $17.4 billion in the fiscal year of 2021-22, indicating more troubles for the ailing economy of the cash-strapped country. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday reported that the country recorded a CAD of $17.406 billion in FY22 compared to a gap of just $2.82 billion in FY21. According to Dawn newspaper, the massive CAD speaks a lot about the severe problem of the balance of payments.
The trade deficit stood at $10.14 billion compared with $9.22 billion in November, a trade ministry official said on Friday.
High crude oil prices, widening current account gap and political uncertainty may keep the rupee weak in the near term.
The government is committed to restrict the fiscal deficit at 3.4 per cent of GDP as envisaged in the Budget.
BSE index falls 2.14 pc; NSE ends 2.08 pc lower
The proposed 'Next Gen GST' with sweeping reforms, lower tax rates, and just two slabs, aims to boost the economy amid tariff threats and set the stage for a single tax rate regime by the time India becomes a developed nation, government sources said.
The government's initiative to migrate SEZ data from NSDL software to ICEGATE system for streamlined reporting of import data caused double counting of gold imports, resulting in inflated figures and the issue has now been largely rectified, government sources said. The downward revision has provided the actual picture of trade deficit (difference between imports and exports), which was earlier looking very high. The deficit for November will now be revised downwards from $37.84 billion to about $32.8 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in overall import numbers as well.
Only a mix of sterilised currency intervention and capital account management can halt the rupee's rise, says Shankar Acharya.
There is vulnerability on both current and capital accounts.
India has been struggling to control the current account deficit that hit an all-time high of 6.7 percent of GDP in the December quarter.
Experts say the state's economy is grappling with hidden debt, rising welfare costs, and lack of transparency.
Overall, merchandise imports rose 10.9 per cent to $41.95 billion.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
The current account deficit - the gap between the import and export of goods and services - widened to 3.7 per cent of GDP during the first half of 2010-11 and was as high as 4 per cent of GDP during the second quarter.
Moody's said India's current account deficit (CAD) has narrowed significantly from 4.8 per cent in 2012 to 1.4 per cent in 2014.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
Along with rising exports, the imports too went up by 54.1 at $40.9 billion during the month, pushing up the trade deficit to $15 billion during May. Imports grew highest in the last four years.
Trade deficit increased to $17.933 billion during the quarter ended September 2006, according to data released the Reserve Bank of India on Friday.
The central government's fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6 per cent of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8 per cent on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between expenditure and revenue -- was Rs 16.53 lakh crore, or 5.63 per cent of the GDP, which grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
We are still in love with the idea of a strong rupee, not realising how much it hurts our poor people and the farmers, says Sonali Ranade
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Despite a higher CAD in the first quarter, capital inflows were broadly adequate to finance the current account gap, requiring only a marginal drawdown of foreign exchange reserves.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
US President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose high tariffs on three of its trading partners, including China will provide huge export opportunities for India and the domestic industry should prepare itself to tap into that, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said on Wednesday. Trump last week vowed to introduce 25 per cent tariffs (or customs duty) on imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10 per cent on China.
High current account deficit is leading to the rupee weakening.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
The government does not seem keen on issuing fresh gold bonds given the overall cost and rising gold prices.
Terming the US current account deficit as "unsustainable", the International Monetary Fund has said it could have a significant adverse effect on interest rates and global capital markets.
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